AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally lower this morning. They ended the Monday session with most contracts 3 to 4 cents in the red. December posted a new life of contract low. The weekly Export Inspections report showed US corn shipments for the week of 9/13 were 1.03 MMTs. That was 49.75% larger than the same week in 2017 and a 31.5% jump from the prior holiday week. The NASS Crop Progress report indicated that 93% of the crop was dented and 54% was mature as of Sunday, both ahead of normal. Harvest was 9% complete, vs. the average pace of 6%. Condition ratings overall were steady during that week at 68% gd/ex and 373 points on the Brugler500 index. North Carolina ratings were down as expected due to the hurricane but offset by some higher Midwest evaluations. Chicken producers are also reporting death losses from the hurricane.

Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures are currently 3 cents lower after ending Monday with most contracts 6 to 7 cents lower. Soybean meal was down $2.90/ton yesterday, while soy oil was 6 points lower. Weekly USDA soybean export inspections totaled 784,752 MT. That was a 15.29% drop from the previous week and was 15.86% lower than the same week last year. NOPA August crush was a record 158.885 mbu, but nearly 5 mbu shy of most estimates. It was still 11.56% larger than August last year. Soy oil stocks at the end of August were tighter than trade ideas at 1.623 billion pounds. The crop progress report showed 53% of the beans dropping leaves (vs. 36% average), with 6% harvested (3% average) as of 9/16. NASS showed condition ratings 1% lower @ 67% good/ex, while the Brugler500 Index dropped 1 point to 372.

Wheat Market Commentary

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher this morning on spread reverses. Chicago SRW is the strongest. They were 3 to 5 1/4 cents lower in most CBT and KC contracts on Monday, with MPLS steady to 3 cents in the green. Weekly Export Inspections totaled 406,004 MT in the week that ended on September 13. That was a drop of 5.74% from the previous week and down 13.4% from the same week last year. Australia suffered some frost damage over the weekend. The US spring wheat crop was reported at 97% harvested, 5% faster than the average. The winter wheat crop was shown 13% planted, lagging the normal pace by 1%. Saudi Arabia purchased 630,000 MT of wheat in their tender, with several origins approved including the US. Egypt’s GASC is in for another round of wheat this week, with results expected later today.

Cattle Market Commentary

Live cattle futures settled Monday with most contracts steady to 40 cents higher and nearby Oct 27.5 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 70 cents in the green, with front month Sep down 32.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index September 13 average was up 11 cents at $152.71. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.77 to $206.04, while Select boxes were 91 cents higher at $197.38. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Monday. That is even with last week and 8,000 head above the same week in 2017. Australia is expected to see an increase in slaughter in 18/19 due to drought conditions according to the country’s ABARE.

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

Lean hog futures finished the Monday session with most contracts down 92.5 cents to $1.275, as nearby Oct was up 22.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.77 cents on September 13 to $51.85. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.49 higher at $76.02 in the Monday afternoon FOB plant report. The national base hog carcass value was up $1.80 @ $50.59 on Monday afternoon. FI hog slaughter on Monday was estimated at 416,000 head, down 43,000 head from last week and 32,000 head from the same week last year. North Carolina slaughter facilities experienced downtime due to Hurricane Florence over the weekend. Many highways are still closed and an estimated 300,000 people were still without power on Monday afternoon.

Cotton Market Commentary

Cotton futures are 71 to 128 points lower this morning. The US activated close to $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese consumer goods, effective September 24. Most are at the 10% level but will escalate to 25% at yearend if there is no trade deal. China will respond with $60 billion in new tariffs on US exports to China. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated that 49% of the US cotton crop had bolls opening as of Sunday, with 13% harvested (above the 6% average). Condition ratings were up 1% to 39% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 Index 8 points higher to 308 on fewer very poor ratings. The Cotlook A index was down 105 points from the previous day at 91.10 cents/lb on September 14. The USDA AWP was updated to 73.79 cents/lb, just 2 points above last week.


Market Commentary provided by:

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