AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 2 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Monday. This morning's Export Inspections report indicated that 1.313 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended 7/19. That was a 4.14% jump from the week prior and 33.55% larger than the same week in 2017. The Friday CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds in corn futures and options adding another 24,947 contracts to their net short position ahead of the rally. That net position stood at -129,323 contracts as of Tuesday. Chinese imports of corn in June totaled 520,000 MT, a 34.6% increase from last year, with sorghum imports up 38.1% at 450,000 MT according to customs data. There was a brief window with low tariffs, which closed again in July.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.57 1/4, up 2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.71, up 2 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.82, up 2 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.88 1/4, up 2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 1 to 1 1/4 cents in the green on Momaday. Nearby soy meal is down $1.60/ton, with soy oil 19 points lower. The USDA reported a cancellation of 165,000 MT of optional origin 2018/19 soybeans to China under the daily reporting system. The Export Inspections report shows that 722,048 MT of soybeans were shipped in the week that ended on July 19. That was 13.26% larger than the previous week and 12.5% above the same time last year. Money managers in soybean futures and options added another 5,152 contracts to their CFTC net short position as of July 17, taking it to -58,399 contracts. Abiove increased their 17/18 Brazil production estimate by 0.3 MMT to 118.7 MMT, with their export estimate up 1.4 MMT to 73.5 MMT.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.50 3/4, up 1 cent,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.56 1/4, up 1 cent,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.66, up 1 1/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.76, up 1 cent,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $328.50, up $1.60,

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.03, down $0.19

Wheat

Wheat futures are 7 to 8 cents higher in the MPLS and KC contracts at midday, with CBT up 3 to 5 cents. All wheat export inspections in the week that ended on July 19 hit 397,862 MT. That was down 15.62% from the week prior and 21.07% lower than the same time last year. Spec funds in CBT wheat futures and options flipped to a net long position of 3,557 contracts in the last reporting week. They were net long 17,928 contracts in KC wheat. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of wheat from the US, Canada, or Australia, with the tender to close on July 29. The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates that Argentina's 18/19 wheat crop will total 20 MMT.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.19, up 3 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.15 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.62 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are trading 10 to 50 cents higher on Monday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed, with the front months a nickel to 27.5 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 29 cents from the previous day at $148.02 on 7/19. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.10 to $205.27, while Select boxes were $2 higher at $199.00. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 635,000 head. That is up 17,000 from the same week last year but down 15,000 head vs. the previous week. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements 1.3% higher than last year, with marketings up 0.85%. July 1 Cattle on feed was a record for the month at 11.282 million head, up 4.26% from last year. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report saw all cattle and calves 1% larger than last July 1 at 103.2 million head. Beef cows were up 0.9% with replacement heifers down 2.1% at 4.6 million head.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $109.025, up $0.100,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $110.725, up $0.475,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $114.775, up $0.575,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $153.400, down $0.275

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $154.500, down $0.050

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $155.025, up $0.250

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing triple digit gains at midday, with nearby Aug 22.5 cents higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 79 cents on July 19, to $77.83. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.64 on Monday morning at $82.50. The butt and picnic were both reported lower. The national base carcass price was $66.82 in the Monday AM report, down $1.24 from the day prior. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.382 million head through Saturday. That is 179,000 head above last year, and up 107,000 head from the week previous on huge Saturday slaughter.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $66.675, up $0.225,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $53.225, up $1.950

Dec 18 Hogs are at $48.200, up $2.275

Cotton

Cotton futures are mostly steady to 50 points lower at midday. Friday's CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding 3,778 contracts to their net long position in the week of July 17. That net position was at 81,052 contracts on that date. The Cotlook A index was down 50 points from the previous day at 97.45 cents/lb on July 20. The weekly USDA AWP is 79.50 cents/lb, up 333 points from the week prior and in effect through Thursday.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 87.24, down 50 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 87.03, down 5 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 86.93, down 3 points

Jul 19 Cotton is at 87.000, down 11 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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