AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are currently 4 3/4 to 5 1/4 cents lower on Thursday. The USDA indicated old crop corn export sales of 528,825 MT in this morning’s Exports Sales report, coming just shy of expectations. That was 11.97% lower than last week, and 39.27% behind this time last year. New crop sales of 124,000 MT, most of which were for Mexico, were a huge improvement over last week but still well behind a year ago. New crops sales have totaled just 63.87% of last year’s total to this point. The expected EPA announcement on the Renewable Fuels Mandate is pushed back to next week at the earliest. China sold just 120,924 MT of the 1.288 MMT of 2013 corn offered at an auction of state reserves on Thursday. Ethanol production in Mexico is expected to increase in the future, as the country’s biofuel industry plans to add 10 new ethanol plants over the next 5 years.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.63 3/4, down 5 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.71 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.81 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.91 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are down 5 3/4 to 7 1/2 cents in the nearby contracts at midday. July 17 soy meal is $1.30 lower, with soy oil down 3 points in the front month. This morning’s Export sales report showed old crop sales of just 111,182 MT, with new crop sales at 3,766 MT. That fell well short of most analysts expectations, as total sales were down 82.4% from last week and 91.3% from last year. China was reported to have a net reduction of 1,200 MT, as new crop outstanding sales have dropped to just 55.4% of last year at this time. Don’t forget that there will be a Chinese buying team here in mid-July. Soy meal total sales of 132,209 MT were reported, which was a drop of 52.3% over last week and 29.1% from the same week a year ago. Soy oil sales were at 17,334 MT, an increase of 10.6% over last year but were down 42.8% from a week ago.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.12 3/4, down 6 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.16 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.17 3/4, down 6 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.20 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $296.60, down $1.30

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $31.82, down $0.03

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing losses in the KC and CBT contracts, as MPLS is higher in most months as of midday. Wheat export sales of 542,881 MT were reported for the 17/18 MY this morning. That exceeded most traders’ estimates, and was 17.3% larger yr/yr and 45.4% above last week. Japan purchased 69,961 MT of US wheat in their weekly MOA tender, in which they bought a total of 134,747 MT of US, Australian, and Canadian wheat. Egypt’s GASC purchased 175,000 MT of wheat from Ukraine and Romania in their most recent tender. The country’s supply ministry stated Thursday, that they intend to import 6.2 MMT of wheat during the 17/18 marketing year beginning in July. That is up from their typical average of 5.5 MMT.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.59 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.66 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.51 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are trading 82.5 cents to $1.60 in the red on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures are down $1.05 to $2.00 in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down 17 cents on June 20 at $148.07. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the Thursday morning report, with choice boxes 95 cents lower at $244.47. Select was down $1, with an average of $217.90. After trading $121-$123 yesterday, cash bids are down today to $119-$120 in the South and $122 in NE. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday was 349,000 head, 1,000 head fewer than last week and 15,000 head more than the same week a year ago. Beef export sales rose 95.6% over last week to 16,647 MT, which is an increase of 2.8% above last year. Beef exported to the US from 5 Brazilian plants was suspended on Wednesday, as food quality and safety is in question. USDA has been reinspecting all beef shipments from Brazil since March.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $118.675, down $0.825,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $113.750, down $1.600,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $111.575, down $1.450,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $142.675, down $1.975

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $142.050, down $2.000

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $140.350, down $1.975

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are posting losses of 67.5 cents to $1.70 in most contracts on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/20 was up another $1.48 to $88.03. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.19 in the morning report, with a weighted average of $99.90.All primal cuts but the rib were lower, as it was up 8 cents. The national base hog carcass price was $1.32 lower with a weighted average of $85.48 in the morning report. Prices ranged from $85.00-$88.00. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,286,000 head through Wednesday, 9,000 more than last week and 24,000 head above last year. The USDA cold storage report will be released at 2:00 p.m. CST this afternoon. After April’s sharp increase over March, the seasonal tendency is for pork stocks to shrink into May. The Export sales report showed 24,731 MT for pork export sales, nearly double of last week and 22.8% larger than last year.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $85.400, down $0.675,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $80.525, down $1.700

Oct 17 Hogs are at $68.375, down $1.450

Cotton

Cotton futures are currently sharply lower in the back months, as July is 27 points higher. The AWP, which is 67.31 cents/lb, will be updated later today.Old crop export sales of 167,544 RB were reported for cotton this morning, with 426,812 RB for new crop. Total combined sales improved 122.59% over last week and 122.93% above a year ago. The Cotlook A index for June 21 was even with the previous day at 83 cents/lb. China sold just 15,800 MT of cotton offered at an auction of state reserves on Thursday, which was 51.88% of the total offered.Chinese cotton production for 2017/18 is estimated at 24.66 million bales by the country’s Cotton Information Center. That is 0.66 million bales over the USDA projection and 1.91 million bales above 16/17 production.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 71.1, up 21 points,

Oct 17 Cotton is at 67.08, down 119 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 66.88, down 129 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 66.920, down 119 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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