AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 2 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents lower on Friday. The USDA announced private export sales of 125,000 MT of corn to Unknown Destinations, with an additional 120,000 MT to Spain for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. Total export commitments gained on last year, but are still 30.49% lower than the same time last year. They are 32% of the USDA export projection for the 17/18 marketing year, compared to the average of 37% and last year’s 41%. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange sees planting progress at 27.7% complete, 5% above this time last year. Acreage intentions are larger. On Friday, China sold 1.95 MMT of the total 3.767 MMT offered at an auction of state reserves.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.45 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.59 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.68, down 3 1/4 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.75 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently down 5 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents at midday. Drier weather this week is pressuring the market, as most traders are ignoring forecasts for showers in the Eastern US next week. December meal is $3.20/ton lower, with nearby bean oil 27 points higher. A private export sale to China of 198,000 MT for 17/18 delivery was reported by the USDA this morning. Soybean commitments for exports are now 11.5% below this time last year. Compared to the USDA full year projection, they are 43% complete, lagging the average for this week at 58% and 54% last year. The CME is lowering the daily price limit to 65 cents for soybeans, which will take effect on November 1.

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.80 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.91 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $10.01 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.10 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal is at $318.20, down $3.20

Dec 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.10, up $0.27

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing losses of 2 to 4 cents in the nearby CBT and KC contracts, as MPLS is down 1-3 cents. Export commitments for all wheat are now 4% lower than this time last year. They are 56% of the full year USDA export projection, just shy of last year’s 58% and the average at 60%. The USDA Ag attach in Australia sees the 2017 production at 20 MMT, 1.5 MMT below the current WASDE supply and demand table, mainly due to dry weather. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimates that winter wheat planting is 90% complete, while AgriMer projects the French wheat crop is 47% planted.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.30, down 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.25 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.14 3/4, down 1 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mixed, with nearby Oct 30 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures mostly 47.5 to 77.5 cents lower on expectations of large September placements. The CME feeder cattle index was 18 cents lower at $155.08 on October 18.Wholesale beef prices were higher in this morning’s report. Choice was up 49 cents at $200.06, with select boxes 45 cents higher at $191.21. Week to date FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 462,000 head, about 7,000 fewer than the previous week but 8,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade has been reported at $110 so far this week, with most of that from a few trades on Wednesday. Bids are currently $110, with most feedlots asking $112-113. Analysts on average are thinking October 1 on feed numbers will be 4.6% larger than last year in tonight’s USDA COF report. September placements are expected at 8% larger than last year with marketings 2.6% above Sept 2016. US beef export commitments are now 9.1% larger than this time in 2016 and absorbing part of the extra production.

Oct 17 Cattle are at $111.500, up $0.300,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $116.100, down $0.050,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $120.750, up $0.100,

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $152.675, down $0.475

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle are at $152.200, down $0.575

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.425, down $0.775

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are 30 to 37.5 cents higher at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/18 jumped another $1.13 over the previous day at $63.34. The national base hog was down 24 cents at $63.25 in the Friday morning report. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.83 higher at $76.15. The butt was the only primal lower, with the belly $4.92 higher and the picnic and ham up $2.13 and $2.42 respectively. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 22,000 head fewer than last week at 1,830,000 head through Thursday, but still 72,000 larger than the same week in 2016. Total 2017 US pork export commitments are 7.5% larger than year ago.Chicken expansion continues, with weekly egg sets up 4% and chick placements up 2%.

Dec 17 Hogs are at $64.600, up $0.350,

Feb 18 Hogs are at $68.850, up $0.375

Apr 18 Hogs are at $72.725, up $0.300

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 8 to 24 points lower, pressured by a sharply rising UD dollar, up 516 points at noon. Export commitments for upland cotton are now 36.3% greater than this time last year. They are currently 58% of the USDA export projection, well ahead of the 41% for this time last year and the average of 45%. The Adjusted World Price (AWP) was updated to 59.73 cents/lb, down 71 points from the previous week.The Cotlook A index for October 19 was unchanged from the previous day at 77.85 cents/lb. The CFTC reported nearly 13.902 million bales worth of sales in unpriced mill on-call options.

Dec 17 Cotton is at 67.07, down 24 points,

Mar 18 Cotton is at 66.93, down 8 points

May 18 Cotton is at 67.93, down 9 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 68.540, down 20 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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