There were gains and losses across most sectors for the month ending on Friday, August 29, in a month where some commodities experienced elevated volatility.

There were double-digit percentage gains in three markets and double-digit percentage losses in only one market in August. 

Arabica coffee futures, Ethereum, and feeder cattle post over 10% gains

ICE Arabica coffee futures led the commodities asset class, with a 33.74% gain in August. 

The daily chart of Arabica coffee futures for December 2025 delivery moved from $2.8870 at the end of July to $3.8610 on August 29. Supply concerns over dry conditions, crop diseases, and U.S. tariffs boosted prices. Brazil and Vietnam are the world’s leading coffee exporters, and U.S. tariffs on these countries exacerbate the supply issues facing the coffee market. 

Ethereum, the second-leading cryptocurrency, soared in August. While Bitcoin prices slipped 6.85%, Ethereum posted a 16.45% gain. 

The monthly chart shows that aside from the nearly 16.5% gain, Ethereum rose to a new high against the U.S. dollar in August. 

Feeder cattle futures rose by 10.48% in August and reached a new record peak.

The monthly thirty-year Feeder cattle futures chart illustrates the parabolic move in the beef futures. Live cattle futures rose 7.39% in August, also reaching a record high in the trading month ending on August 29. Cattle futures continue to make higher highs as small herds and rising production costs are putting upward pressure on beef prices. 

The commodities that came within striking distance of a 10% gain were gasoline crack spreads, up 9.97% in August, Chicago ethanol swaps, which gained 9.68% for the month ending on August 29. COMEX silver futures gained 9.50% and traded over the $40 per ounce level for the first time since 2011. 

Lumber futures fall more than 10% in August

Lumber is an illiquid and volatile futures market.

The daily chart shows the 16.88% decline in physical lumber futures for November delivery, falling from $708 at the end of July to $588.50 per 1,000 board feet on August 29. Persistently high interest rates, which have weighed on new home demand, have been bearish for lumber. Moreover, seasonality may be weighing on wood prices, as the approaching winter months are typically the offseason for construction. 

Mixed results in other sectors
Most metals moved to the upside in August. After a highly volatile July, COMEX copper futures rose just under 3.8% for the month. Silver was up 9.50%.

Gold prices rose 5% as the bull market that began in 1999 remains intact. Platinum was 5.5% higher, while palladium futures corrected 7.76% lower. Platinum, palladium, and silver had formed bullish key reversals, and gold reached its seventh consecutive quarterly record high in Q2. 

There was a 9.68% gain in Chicago ethanol swaps, and the gasoline refining spreads moved 9.97% higher. WTI and Brent crude oil, oil products, the distillate refining spread, natural gas, and coal for delivery in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, posted declines in August.

In the grain and oilseed sector, soybean futures rallied by 6.6%, while corn was 1.57% higher, and wheat futures declined 1.52%. The USDA’s August WASDE report told the soybean market that U.S. and global inventories declined in August, supporting the oilseed’s price. 

In the livestock sector, beef and pork prices rose, despite the approach of the end of the 2025 grilling season, which ended on the first day of September. Cattle remain in a highly bullish trend after reaching new record highs in August. The continuous lean hog futures contract was considerably higher at the end of August 2025 than it was at the end of August 2024. Smaller herds and rising production costs supported the meat futures. 

Stocks higher- Bonds Steady- the dollar weakens

While the U.S. tariffs and tensions between President Trump and the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to cause uncertainty, the stock market continued to power higher in August. The S&P 500, the most diversified U.S. stock market index, rose 1.91%. Moreover, the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to record highs in August. 

The U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures edged 0.52% higher in August. The long bond futures remained within the 110-01 to 127-22 trading range, which has been in place since December 2023. 

Tariff concerns, rising debt levels, and uncertainty caused a 2.06% decline in the U.S. dollar index. While the index futures remained above the July 2025 low of 96, the bearish trend in 2025 continued with the September dollar index futures settling at 97.690 on August 29. 

Factors to watch in September 2025- Natural Gas as the peak demand season approaches

The end of the 2025 summer season means that the peak driving and grilling seasons will fade into the background. The odds favor price weakness in meats and gasoline prices over the coming weeks and months. However, livestock futures remain at record highs and were elevated during the 2024/2025 offseason. Meanwhile, gasoline demand should decline as temperatures drop, but crude oil and oil products remain sensitive to events in the Middle East.

The U.S. natural gas futures market tends to reach seasonal highs when the injection season ends and withdrawal from stockpiles begins in November. However, the futures market tends to reflect the upcoming peak demand season in early fall. 

The chart shows that as of August 22, 2025, natural gas inventories in the U.S. stood at 3.217 trillion cubic feet, 5% above the five-year average, but 3.4% below the level at the same time in 2024. Lower inventories going into the peak season could support natural gas prices. Moreover, LNG demand from Europe could support prices as U.S. supplies replace Russian natural gas exports to the European market. Nearby natural gas futures prices were just under $3 per MMBtu at the end of August. 

Finally, keep a close eye on silver, as its price moved over the $40 per ounce level on August’s final session. Silver could be on a path to challenge the 2011 and 1980 highs around the $50 level before the end of 2025. 

Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in September and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed. 

On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.